Oscar Contenders/Academy Awards

[Jamie]

The first full trailer for Django Unchained is out. It's Quentin Tarantino so violent, but looks good. Naturally being released at the end of the year.

[narrows101]

First everyone said Daniel Day-Lewis was a "lock" for Best Actor. "The Master" has now screened at Venice, and the new "winner" is Joaquin Phoenix.

An across the board consensus, however, is that Joaquin Phoenix is a lock for a best actor Oscar nomination and, barring any other exceptionally standout performances this year, a win. His portrayal of a disturbed World War II veteran Navy man is disturbing itself for the masterful way he embodies such an enigmatic character.

www.deadline.com/2012/09/venice-the-master-and-joaquin-phoenix-draw-raves-but-pic-is-hard-nut-to-crack-trailer-scenes-missing/

[wombat]

So Hugh just needs to put in an "exceptionally outstanding" performance. It's possible and at least his role and performance will be like nothing else in contention. We may get a trailer soon but noone's going to get a proper look at the film until they've recorded and edited the score. It's such an integral part of the film that it would be pointless to have screenings with a temporary score. We have to wait until mid-November, at least.

The same report suggests that Bill Murray is a likely contender but elsewhere (possibly Kris Tapley) that "Hyde Park on the Hudson" is too stuffy and that he might be pushed to "supporting".

[narrows101]

I had to read how DDL was the "shoe-in" to win before the movie was actually seen, and now Phoenix is the "shoe-in" but that movie *has* been seen (and I suspect we will be getting a "who will win, DDL or Phoenix" when "Lincoln" is seen). I guess there will be more since Hugh will probably be the last to be "unveiled".

[wombat]

I think we could be hearing about the first real Oscar contender. "Argo" seems to have been very well-received at Telluride. People like it. It's said to be intelligent, gripping and funny. What's more, the reviews make me want to see it.

Up until now, it's been all about "The Master" and a lot if the buzz seems to come from the limited supply. People who've seen it seem to gain some kind of kudos just from having seen it but that will disappear once it's been seen more widely. We're told that the characters are unlikeable and it's hard to work out what it's about. But it's biggest problem may be that people seem to feel they need to see it a second time before forming an opinion. With so many other films to see, why would the members of AMPAS choose a second viewing of an unlikeably film?

I'm trying to work out why I'm developing such antipathy to "The Master". It may be down to the over-zealous bloggers. It may be because there's a picture of Joaquin Pheonix can gives me the creeps. Whatever, the more I read about it, the less I want to see it.

[Jamie]

wombat, Nice to know someone else was having that reaction to The Master in the face of all the hype. Whether I will go see a movie is based a great deal on "Do I want to spend almost 3 hours of my life with these characters?". Whether I love or hate them, are they worth the time. For The Master, the answer keeps coming up "No".

[icelemt38]

In terms of Oscars though, I think Pheonix has good chances at a nod, I wonder if Hawkes can get a nod since his movie is so small regardless of how well i was received. Come Oscar time, his buzz might have faded already. Hyde Park on the Hudson wasn't all that well received so I don't think Murray will be recognized like many were predicting. I'm almost certain LM will bet a BP nod as long as it's good, I'm just watching the Best Actor category like a hawk. Why does it seem like every year that Hugh has movies in contention, it's always an over crowded super strong year? He seems to sit out in years where there's practically no competition like last year.

[wombat]

So far, the critics are loving "The Master" - at Rotten Tomatoes it has eight reviews and an average rating of 9.3/10. I'll concede that it looks like it's getting in and Phoenix, too.

[narrows101]

God, I just WISH they show something showcasing Hugh - at least to cement him in the top five (in the minds of the predictors) because some of the sites have him fading. I know, means nothing now, but I hate reading this stuff and at the same time can't help myself. That being said, I bet by the end of the month we see a new trailer. I was hoping to have a "Hugh showcase" but if it's partly with One Day More, like we've read, I don't know how that can be (unless that's just a snippet of it).

[icelemt38]

I'd honestly rather momentum be built later on than this early on. If its good then it's good, doesn't matter when it's released or when the schmoozing begins but when it's this early on things might fade. Phoenix I think it's safe to assume a lock for lead but I wouldn't say the same for anyone else.

[narrows101]

Looks like we probably can scratch Bill Murray off the list. "Hyde Park on the Hudson" was screened.

At 61 years of age, the presumably hard-living Bill Murray conservatively only has two more decades of work left in him. So perhaps we all want him to really dazzle us with some meaty roles and not waste his time with middling fluff like Roger Michell's "Hyde Park On Hudson," a moderately pleasant, but depthless picture that makes "The King's Speech" look like "A Clockwork Orange." Ok, that's a purposeful exaggeration, but "Hyde Park On Hudson" is unremarkable; the type of would-be Oscar fluff that makes sure it goes down the award season check list for every gentle and inoffensive cinematic element it can find.Featuring a gentle score in the key of "delightful" -- the cloying sentiment that largely defines the film -- a voice-over, oh-so-comical cultural misunderstandings and serviceable performances, Michell's picture, much like last year’s similarly weightless "My Life With Marilyn," is perhaps only a few grades higher than above-average Lifetime movie. It's amiable, safe, conventional, and yes, to many audiences at Telluride, tremendously crowd-pleasing, but that doesn't preclude the fact that it's thoroughly milquetoast.

***
While Linney puts in a good performance and Murray delivers a subtle and mannered turn as Roosevelt, the would-be Oscar talk for this picture should evaporate quicker than you can say "The only thing we have to fear is fear itself" (though the hacks at the Golden Globes will eat it up). The picture should be far too lightweight to be taken too seriously as Academy fodder and if "The King's Speech" argument is brought up, well, at least that picture was comparatively funnier and more engaging. Then again, Bill Murray isn’t getting any younger and this could be his consolation prize nomination for all of those years he was mostly ignored (he has one Oscar nomination to date).

blogs.indiewire.com/theplaylist/telluride-review-hyde-park-on-hudson-is-lightweight-toothlesss-crowd-pleaser-20120904

[narrows101]

Awards Daily/Sasha Stone sees this so far - I don't think she cares too much for Hugh, thinks he's only Wolverine - but she did say in one Podcast that she thinks Les Mis is the fronrunner.

To find Best Picture, though, you might have to start by finding that movie everyone thinks will win but won’t because A) everyone already thinks it will and B) it is too delicious of an option to not vote for it.

Films that have already been seen and are reliable contenders:
Argo
Beasts of the Southern Wild
Moonrise Kingdom
Amour
Ruse & Bone
The Master

Films that will be seen in Toronto that have not yet been seen
Cloud Atlas
The Place Beyond the Pines
The Silver Linings Playbook

Films that are already churning in the hype machine but haven’t been seen:
Lincoln
Django Unchained
Les Miserables
Life of Pi (New York)
Flight (New York)
The Hobbit
Trouble with the Curve

Total wild cards:
The Dark Knight Rises
The Avengers

The only thing we know for sure is that this probably isn’t going to be a year like Slumdog Millionaire, The Artist or The King’s Speech, unless Argo or Beasts win. It might be like Million Dollar Baby or The Departed. Most would agree that, sight unseen, it’s a race between Les Miserables and Lincoln. The New York Film Fest might have our Best Picture winner in either Flight or Life of Pi.

Based on what I know about Oscar the winner will either be a runaway hit by a virtual unknown (King’s Speech, The Artist) or it will be one that is owed to a veteran of film who either hasn’t ever been acknowledged or is overdue for another Oscar win.

To that end, my instincts have me thinking of Best Picture this way:

Lincoln (Spielberg is overdue, written by the brilliant Tony Kushner, adapted from Doris Kearns Goodwin’s Pulitzer Prize winner, in an election year, a film about the greatest President who ever lived).

Les Miz (it could pack an emotional punch, plus help validate the Academy’s bet that Tom Hooper has the stuff)

Django Unchained (Quentin Tarantino is one of the greatest American filmmakers yet to be honored with a Best Director or Best Picture win)

Flight (Zemeckis has been off course for a while now but will Denzel put him back on track?)

Life of Pi (the beloved Ang Lee might finally cash in on the Best Picture win his Best Director Oscar promised)

The Dark Knight Rises (Christopher Nolan is long overdue and this last film in the trilogy could finally give him the acknowledgement he deserves, but…)

Argo (just a really good film that might win because it isn’t the other movie that voters don’t want to win)

Beasts of the Southern Wild (the film is so emotionally affecting it might be the only one voters LOVE).

If there are any potential winners beyond that they are off my radar. The Master, while being hailed as brilliant, will be too obtuse to win over the middle of the road voters. The Hobbit, Peter Jackson was too recently rewarded (though it’s possible, of course), Cloud Atlas is still a mystery, The Silver Linings Playbook will probably be too light, The Place Beyond the Pines will probably be too depressing, Moonrise Kingdom too obtuse, etc.

This is how it stands on Wednesday, September 5. Once anything changes I’ll be sure to let you know. And I do sort of hope it changes and keeps on changing. Those are the best Oscar years, when nothing is as it appears and the twists and turns come so fast you can barely keep track of them.

www.awardsdaily.com/blog/2012/09/05/the-state-of-the-race-wanted-best-picture-contender-must-like-dogs/

[narrows101]

It's all about "The Master" at this point.

blogs.indiewire.com/theplaylist/oscars-which-contenders-got-heat-coming-out-of-venice-and-telluride-20120906

"Oscars: Which Contenders Got Heat Coming Out Of Venice And Telluride?"

Of course, the big news in Venice, although it had screened multiple times already, was the 'official' unveiling of Paul Thomas Anderson's "The Master." While we had more reservations about the film than some, it's undeniably a hugely impressive piece of work, and having seen it, we're pretty sure it'll make it in to one of the Best Picture slots. But we're less confident that it has a chance of winning. Early on in the film it felt like a home run, but it gets more difficult and button-pushing as it goes on, and we're not sure we can see the voters who went for "The Artist" and "The King's Speech" responding to it, no matter how hard Harvey pushes it.

That said, it should make it through to the "Tree Of Life" slot, and we can certainly see it being, like "There Will Be Blood" before it, among the most nominated of the year. Nods for Picture, probably Director, Original Screenplay, Production Design (and maybe costume...) Cinematography, Editing and Score all feel like they're in the bag. Joaquin Phoenix is a mortal lock in Best Actor (and is a serious front-runner to win at this point), while the only reason that Philip Seymour Hoffman might miss out is if the Weinsteins campaign for him alongside Phoenix in Best Actor, rather than Supporting, and given their general Oscar-campaigning canniness, we can't imagine they'll do so unless Anderson insists. Amy Adams should get a nomination too, though could fail to win once again -- she's superb, but it's not an especially Oscar-friendly role. Between all of that, all it needs is a Sound nomination or two, and it'll land among the most nominated films in history. Unless we're very wrong about all these extra nods, we can't see the film missing out on a Best Picture slot, and the momentum could even be enough to push it on for a win.

[narrows101]

Another possible contender, including best actor:

And now Harvey clearly has another winner with Silver Linings which will almost certainly put stars Bradley Cooper, Jennifer Lawrence and Robert De Niro all in major contention for acting nominations. In fact, in what has previously looked like a pretty weak field for lead actress this year, Lawrence leaps to the top of the pack with a revelatory performance that seemed to knock most observers out.

www.deadline.com/2012/09/toronto-weinstein-finds-a-new-silver-lining-for-the-oscar-race-at-premiere-of-latest-major-contender/

[wombat]

Also talk of PSH going lead. At least we're seeing some different films coming through.

Going by the mixed reviews, the "fiasco" hinted at a few weeks ago looks to be "Cloud Atlas". There are some who love it but others think it's a mess.

[narrows101]

Sept 9, 2012 10:55:41 GMT -5 wombat said:

Also talk of PSH going lead. At least we're seeing some different films coming through.

Going by the mixed reviews, the "fiasco" hinted at a few weeks ago looks to be "Cloud Atlas". There are some who love it but others think it's a mess.

I don't know who gets to decide who's in what category (studio? rules?), but I doubt they would put PSH and Joaquin P. in the same Best Actor category, I would think it would split the vote. I'm wondering if they would put JP in the Supporting category since it's a bit weaker and he would have a better shot at winning.

[wombat]

I need to keep you talking - you're only two short of a huge number of posts.

There's always such a big fuss about new contenders that we miss the ones that drop out of the race. I'm thinking of films like "Lawless" and "Killing them Softly" which landed with a fizzle. Any others?

[jean]

Sept 9, 2012 11:05:34 GMT -5 narrows101 said:

Sept 9, 2012 10:55:41 GMT -5 wombat said:

(studio? rules?), but I doubt they would put PSH and Joaquin P. in the same Best Actor category, I would think it would split the vote.

Don't know it either, but both have just won the award (they share this award) for best male leading actor, the "Golden Lion", in Venice.

[wildfire]

I so want Hugh to at least get some nominations for Les Miz. I am really excited for this movie. R Crowe said that the big wigs saw a work-in-progress cut of it and he is getting a lot of excited emails.

[Jamie]

The Oscar contenders are usually divided between the "critic's movies" and the "Fan Movies". Les Mis may be in the enviable position of a movie that fans have been waiting for forever and critic's will love because it is so different that any film recently seen. At least I truly hope so.